What the results tell us for Young
Young Shire population continues to grow in number and age. In August of Census year 2001 there were 11,850 residents in the shire, while at 30 June 2004 the estimated residential population had grown to 11,957. Since the end of the previous reporting period (30 June 2000), the numbers in the shire are estimated to have increased by 5%.
Along with many other jurisdictions in Australia, Young Shire Council has to consider the impacts of an ageing population and an exodus of young people—for its economy, its infrastructure and lifestyle.
Council notes changes in family types, particularly the decreasing number of households made up of couples with children, compared with increases in the proportion of households comprising a sole-parent with children, childless couples and single occupants.
Increasing population and increasing number of households means more land for residential purposes with potential impacts on ecological communities.
For a more detailed analysis of data for Young Shire from the 2001 Census of Population and Housing, see Young Council's website.
Population growing in number and age
The population in Young Shire was 11,850 at the 2001 Census (Table 1; and see About the data). It increased by 8% in the 20 years to 2001. Figure 1 illustrates the growth between Census years from 1981 to 2001, followed by annual estimated residential population at 30 June for 2002, 2003 and 2004.
Table 1 also shows that since the last Census the population has continued to increase. Actual percentage growth since the 2000 State of the Environment Report (based on preliminary estimated resident population for 2000 to 2004) is 5%. By comparison actual percentage growth over the same period across the Australian Capital Region was 4%.
* See About the data for Australian Bureau of Statistics comments on years 2002–04; Source: NIEIR Your Place (2003) and Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue No. 3218.0
Source: NIEIR Your Place (2003) and Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue No. 3218.0
The growth in population needs to be seen in the context of the age group where change is occurring. Between 1981 and 2001, the number of people over 60 years of age increased and at 2001 was nearly 16% of the population (Table 2). The 15–59 year group also increased over the same period. Correspondingly, the under-15 age group dropped in both number and in proportion over the 20-year period. Percentage changes are shown in Table 2 and illustrated in Figure 2.
On the whole, the average age of the population in the shire is increasing—in 1996 it was 37.4; in 2001 it was 38.2. It is estimated that average age will increase to 41.5 by 2011 and 45.3 in 2021 (NIEIR 2003a). In 1996 residents aged 55 years and over comprised 25% of the population. By 2001 that had increased to 26%. It is expected to be 38% by 2021. By comparison, the less than 25 age group and the 25–54 age group are both expected to decrease (NIEIR 2003a).
What might be the implications of the above trends? A continuing reduction in population, particularly of young people who do not return to the local workforce or are not replaced, is likely to have implications for productivity. The growing group of retirees will have generally lower incomes and spend less than will (typically young) singles and families, yet many over the retirement age will continue to make a substantial contribution to the socio-economic buoyancy of the community for some years. For example, as of 2001, some 59.8% of males aged 55 to 64 years and 32.1% of females were still in the workforce (NIEIR 2003b). By comparison, 56.1% of males and 35.8% of females in that age group were employed Australia-wide.
Some factors that influence productivity across the shire will include educational opportunities and apprenticeship/training opportunities, local job availability, skills needs versus availability and retention or attraction of people who will contribute to the shire.
The implications for council management for the future will be addressed in more detail in council's Social Plan.
Adapted from NIEIR 2003, Your Place, Population Profile for Young
Adapted from NIEIR (2003) Your Place, Population Profile for Young
Ethnicity and diversity
The population of Young Shire is made up of 49.5% males and 50.5% females (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2003). This is compared with the ratio of males to females for all of Australia on Census night (7 August 2001) of 49.3% males and 50.7% females.
In 2001 the proportion of Indigenous residents in Young was the same as for Australia as a whole—2.2%. This had grown from just under 1% in 1991. Also in 2001, some 91.9% of Young Shire residents reported as being non-Indigenous residents who were born in Australia (Table 3). The proportion of residents born overseas remains higher than for most other shires in the Region.
|Origin||1991 Census||1996 Census||2001 Census|
|Born in Australia||9,960||93.9||10,066||93.2||10,035||91.9|
|Born overseas (a)||549||5.2||589||5.5||650||6.0|
(a) Includes 'Inadequately described', 'At sea' and 'Not elsewhere classified'; Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2001 Time Series Profile Catalogue No. 2003.0
Households and family type
Some 58% of residents over 15 years of age were married (in either formal legal marriages or in de facto marriages) in 2001. Approximately 86% lived in one-family households—52.7% were couples with children, 21.5% couples with no children and 11.2% were one-parent families (Table 4). The drop in the percentage of couples with children since 1991 and the increase in the percentage of households occupied by single-parent families with children may reflect a higher divorce rate or a change in attitudes to parenting—with couples either choosing to delay childbirth or not to have children altogether.
The Social Plan should explore these patterns further and identify whether there are emerging social planning issues for the shire.
Council notes that increases in the lone person household statistics from 1991 may be due in part to a change in 1996 from how those statistics were recorded in 1991. Lone person household increases may also reflect the ageing of the community.
|Household type||1991 Census (a)||1996 Census||2001 Census (b)|
|One family household:|
|Couple family with children||5,963||59.7||5,764||55.4||5,511||52.7|
|Couple family without children||1,767||17.7||2,045||19.7||2,251||21.5|
|One parent family||955||9.6||1,009||9.7||1,171||11.2|
|Lone person household||903||9.0||1,145||11.0||1,161||11.1|
For notes on (a) and (b) see About the data; Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2001 Time Series Profile, Catalogue No. 2003.0
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As one might expect of a rural local government area with few townships, Young Shire is relatively sparsely populated, but is nevertheless more closely populated than 10 other shires in the Region.
The preliminary estimated residential population at June 2004 was 11,957. Based on those landuses in the shire that are most likely to be populated (urban and agriculture), the calculated population density is around 0.05 persons per hectare (or one person for every 22.07 hectares). The average population density across all 17 NSW Local Government areas in the Region is one person for every 41.58 hectares. The calculation does not include the ACT.
About the data
Data for this indicator were sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, either directly, or as transcribed by the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, Melbourne for its 2003 State of the Regions report.
Australian Bureau of Statistics produces a variety of products based on Census data collection. There may be variation between products, based on whether the product is based on place of enumeration (as in the Time Series Profile) or is based on usual place of residence (as in Usual Residents Profile). There are other variations as well.
Data for Table 1—Years 1981–2001 were taken from the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research 2003 State of the Regions report. Years 2002, 2003 and 2004 were taken from Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue No. 3218.0. They are preliminary figures. As explained in the Extract from Explanatory Notes, Australian Bureau of Statistics—Catalogue No. 3218.0 'To meet the conflicting demands for accuracy and timeliness there are three estimates of sub-state/territory populations. Preliminary estimates are normally available eight months after the reference date (i.e. February), revised estimates a year later and final estimates after the following census.' Estimated population for 2002 in Table 1 has therefore been revised. For 2003 and 2004, available figures were still preliminary at the time of writing.
Data for Table 4—Household Type and Family Type Australian Bureau of Statistics, Time Series Profile (T17), Catalogue No. 2003.0, Commonwealth of Australia, 2003—(a) In 1996, 'Manufactured Home Estates' and 'Accommodation for the Retired or Aged (self-care)' have been excluded. These dwellings were Non-private dwellings in 1991; (b) In 2001, Serviced Apartments and persons living in Serviced Apartments have been included. These dwellings were Non-private dwellings in 1991 and 1996.
Population density is calculated by dividing the estimated residential population at 2004 into the size of the whole shire area minus conservation lands and state forests because few, if any, people live in those areas of land use.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2004) Regional Population Growth, Australia and New Zealand, 2002–03, Catalogue No. 3218.0—'Australian Capital Region, Estimated Residential Population—30 June', Commonwealth of Australia.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2005) Regional Population Growth, Australia and New Zealand, 2003–04, Catalogue No. 3218.0—'Australian Capital Region, Estimated Residential Population—30 June', Commonwealth of Australia.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2003) Time Series Profile, Catalogue No. 2003.0, Commonwealth of Australia.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2003) Usual Residents Profile, Catalogue No. 2004.0, Commonwealth of Australia.
National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (2003a) State of the Regions 2003—Your Place, Tables: 'Age Distribution', http://www.nieir.com.au.
National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (2003b) State of the Regions 2003—Your Place, Table: 'Aged characteristics', http://www.nieir.com.au.
NIEIR—see National Institute of Economic and Industry Research.